2022 NBA Rookie of the Year odds, stats, and data points

With the NBA Summer League already underway, there’s no better time to look at the contenders for the 2023 Rookie of the Year (ROY) award.

Each year, a group of sportswriters and broadcasters in the United States and Canada cast their ballots to determine a winner. Voters will rank their top three players, with first-place receiving five points, second-place receiving three points, and third-place receiving one point. The player with the highest cumulative points total will win the award.

Below, you’ll find each player’s odds, along with their draft number and the teams that selected them.

NBA Rookie of the Year odds

What to know before betting on NBA Rookie of the Year

But before you scour the market for possible contenders, I took a look at the award winners dating back to 1966 (the first modern NBA draft following the elimination of the territorial pick) to find some key trends to aid in your selection process.

• Guards have led the way winning the award 25 times, forwards have won it 23 times, and centers 11 times.
• Players who won the award were on teams that missed the playoffs or play-in rounds 46 of 59 times.
• Five of the past six winners were on teams that reached either the play-in tournament or playoffs.
• Eighteen award winners were selected first overall, 13 were selected second, seven were selected third, and six were selected with the fourth pick.
• Eight award winners were selected with the fourth or fifth pick.
• Two award winners were selected 11th overall.
• One winner was selected with the seventh, eighth, ninth, 18th, and 36th picks.

While the ROY award is given to the most exceptional first-year player, the recent trend of those award winners challenging for a playoff spot could be more than just a coincidence.

2017 might’ve been the year that served as the turning point as Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon won the award after averaging 10.2 points, 4.2 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.1 steals.

Philadelphia’s Dario Šarić (12.2) and Buddy Hield (10.6), who played for both the Pelicans and Kings that year, averaged more points than Brogdon.

However, Brogdon was the only player to reach the postseason.

Since this award is subjective, I think there’s been a clear shift in how the voters determine their rankings. As a result, it might be prudent for bettors to give more consideration to players on teams with a greater chance to contend for the playoffs.

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Lastly, when determining your ROY candidates, there’s no better sign of a player’s ability than their availability. This means that not only do the contenders need to remain relatively healthy, but they also need to be able to play consistent minutes to have a chance to win the award.

Since 1966, NBA ROY winners averaged around 2697 minutes in their first year. Thus, bettors should target players likely to face fewer barriers based on where they fit within the rotation or depth chart.

Now that we’ve outlined the critical factors in determining a winner, our next installment will feature our best bets of contenders to add to our portfolio.

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