Bryce Harper rising to No. 1? Execs still prefer Mike Trout

Publish date: 2024-08-06

Since their first full major league seasons in 2012, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper engendered a question: Whom would you take?

There was a Larry Bird-vs.-Magic Johnson quality — two great talents arriving simultaneously. Except Harper couldn’t stay healthy and his actions often brought disapproval — even in his own clubhouse.

Conversely, Trout was durable, high-performance and low-maintenance. He was a young Mickey Mantle — just injury-free.

But since the beginning of last season, Harper has stayed off the disabled list and become the game’s most feared hitter.

It leads to a different basketball matchup: Like Stephen Curry pursuing or passing LeBron James for the title of best basketball player in the world, Harper has done the same with Trout. The debate is on again.

So I asked 13 executives and scouts: If money were no object and you could start a franchise with either Trout or Harper, who do you got?

Three said they actually would take Houston shortstop Carlos Correa, and one also mentioned Baltimore third baseman Manny Machado. But the request was Trout vs. Harper, and eight took Trout and five went with Harper — with two of the Harper voters admitting they only had changed recently. One Trout voter actually wavered toward Harper in the midst of an email response before stating, “I’ll stay with Trout, but it’s as close a vote as you can get.”

There could be recency bias. Harper had among the greatest offensive seasons ever last year, leading the majors in on-base percentage (.460) and slugging percentage (.649). He is at .406 and .849 this year, and he amazingly has seven strikeouts and eight homers, showing that while his swing is maniacal, his knowledge/approach has matured.

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Trout is hitting .286 in 16 games with two homers. Over the past four years, he has either finished first or second in every AL MVP vote, sporting a .970 OPS in that period.

Oh, yeah: Trout is 24, Harper 23.

“I would hope that we could trade draft picks, and I could trade to number 2 and be ecstatic to get who was not selected first and have the extra value from the trade,” one AL executive said. “If we could not trade draft picks, I would take Trout. Both players are superhuman offensive weapons. I would ultimately take the plus center fielder.”

The too-close-to-call sentiment was repeated. Those favoring Trout cited his more premium position (center, to Harper’s right), better base-running skills, consistency, stellar reputation as a teammate and the fact righty power is harder to find than lefty power.

“I would take Trout, with no disrespect to Harper because he is an unworldly player,” an AL scout said. “But I take the production at the premium position. What Trout does there you may only see once in a generation — or less.”

Those who favored Harper did so because, as one NL official put it, “His offense is just too good right now in a pitching-dominant time.”

The pro-Harper group almost saw this as taking a riskier stock that could grow to astonishing levels, but had downside compared with the steady, excellent returns of Trout. Harper’s control of the strike zone suggests he still might become an even better hitter, with one AL executive saying, “It’s not a knock on Trout. Harper has just passed him. He’s kind of transcending the game at this point.”

If longevity is a factor, one executive said, he thought Trout’s thick body might not age well, while another fretted about the force of Harper’s swing eventually eroding his body. But those were mainly nitpicks.

After going through the pros for both players, one NL executive said what it seemed all the responders thought: “There isn’t a wrong answer.”

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